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Dollar gains ground despite hot European inflation data

Published at Fri, Mar 1 2024 - 3:54 pm

The dollar gained ground on Friday despite strong inflation figures in Europe, after US Federal Reserve officials signalled rate cuts would have to wait until summer. The euro fell to USD1.0799 on Friday afternoon compared to USD1.0841 on Thursday. The pound fell

US fourth quarter GDP growth revised slightly lower

Published at Wed, Feb 28 2024 - 3:06 pm

US economic growth was slightly weaker than previously estimated in the fourth quarter last year, according to government data released Wednesday, due mainly to a downward revision to business investment. GDP growth in the world's biggest economy was revised to a

Yen climbs after Japan consumer price inflation beat

Published at Tue, Feb 27 2024 - 4:19 pm

The dollar was largely on the up on Tuesday, while the yen outperformed on a hotter-than-expected inflation reading from Japan. Against the yen, the greenback faded to JPY150.32 on Tuesday afternoon UK time, from JPY150.64 on Monday. Japan's annual consumer pr

Euro up before Lagarde speaks; dollar mixed

Published at Mon, Feb 26 2024 - 5:14 pm

The dollar lost ground against European counterparts but made gains elsewhere in a mixed start to the week for the US currency, with inflation data the focus in the days to come. Versus the dollar, the euro rose to USD1.0858 on Monday, from USD1.10829 on Friday. The

Oil prices down after US inventories

Published at Fri, Feb 23 2024 - 2:29 pm

Oil prices weakened on Friday, though US crude inventories rose for the fourth time in a row, albeit at a slower pace than expected. A barrel of Brent fetched USD82.69 around 1100 GMT on Friday, down from USD83.18 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate fell to USD77.59

Dollar returns some post-inflation data progress

Published at Mon, Feb 19 2024 - 3:20 pm

The dollar weakened on Monday, as its post-US inflation data winning streak took a breather, but remains on what the readings mean for the Federal Reserve. It is a quiet day for currency trade, however, with financial markets in the US closed for the Washington's

UK retail sales momentum expected to build after strong January

Published at Fri, Feb 16 2024 - 2:59 pm

The surprise jump in retail sales on Friday was welcomed by economists, suggesting a consumer-led recovery could be afoot, although the volatile nature of recent releases prompted some caution. UK retail sales growth comfortably topped forecasts in January, numbers s

Oil prices waver after large US inventory build

Published at Thu, Feb 15 2024 - 3:19 pm

Oil prices extended losses on Thursday amid signs of flagging energy demand in the US, but gold rebounded, though it remained just below the USD2,000 mark. A barrel of Brent fetched USD81.10 on Thursday, down from USD82.97 on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate f

Dollar up as US CPI data hits rate cut expectations

Published at Tue, Feb 13 2024 - 3:49 pm

The dollar strengthened markedly on Tuesday, after a consumer price reading all but ensured that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in March. The dollar strengthened markedly in the wake of the CPI release. The euro fell to USD1.0703 on Tuesday from USD1

Dollar edges higher ahead of CPI reading

Published at Mon, Feb 12 2024 - 4:03 pm

The dollar was mostly higher on Monday, ahead of Tuesday's consumer price reading. Meanwhile, the pound will face a number of tests this week, ahead of a slew of economic data. Against the dollar, the pound fell to USD1.2618 on Monday afternoon in London from

Dollar in demand after robust jobs data, yen falls back

Published at Thu, Feb 8 2024 - 3:55 pm

The dollar strengthened on Thursday as robust jobs figures suggested near term rate cuts were unlikely, while the yen slipped back after 'dovish' remarks from a Bank of Japan official. The pound fell against the dollar to USD1.2582 on Thursday, from USD1.2636

Australian dollar rises after hawkish hold by RBA

Published at Tue, Feb 6 2024 - 4:27 pm

The dollar was mixed on Tuesday, as its post US-jobs data rally cooled slightly on Tuesday, with its Australian counterpart among those making a stride after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unmoved. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate t

Dollar forges ahead after US nonfarms; RBA call to come

Published at Mon, Feb 5 2024 - 4:54 pm

The dollar extended gains at the start of the week as currency traders digested last week's robust US nonfarm payrolls report and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook. There was also a pre-recorded interview with the central bank's

Fed should be in no hurry to cut

Published at Wed, Jan 31 2024 - 11:15 am

In ING's Fed preview, analysts felt the central message coming across from tonight’s FOMC meeting would be that imminent action was not on the table. A recent speech by the Fed’s Christopher Waller has helped set the context for today

USD gears up for a big week

Published at Mon, Jan 29 2024 - 3:08 pm

The dollar has been the strongest performer across the G10 and emerging market currency blocs this year. This is probably down to US growth holding up well. This means that the Fed need not rush into rate cuts. Additionally, there is a far from compelling investment cas

Dollar weakens on strong PMI data in UK and Japan

Published at Wed, Jan 24 2024 - 5:03 pm

The dollar traded largely lower on Wednesday, as strong purchasing managers' index releases in the UK and Japan demonstrated weighed on the dollar. The UK's private sector expansion was stronger than anticipated at the start of 2024, preliminary data suggeste

Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose policies

Published at Tue, Jan 23 2024 - 4:00 pm

The Bank of Japan maintained its signature monetary easing measures on Tuesday, as speculation grows of a shift away from its ultra-loose stance. After a two-day policy meeting, board members decided to keep interest rates in negative territory – a global anoma

Dollar up as Fed cuts edge further away; ECB "last mile"

Published at Thu, Jan 18 2024 - 4:13 pm

The dollar continued to trade higher on Thursday, as analysts continued to cut interest rate bets in the US. The same trajectory has been mirrored in Europe and the UK, too, with hotter-than-expected UK inflation data and European Central Bank minutes avoiding rate c

Eurozone consumer price inflation picks up to 2.9%

Published at Wed, Jan 17 2024 - 2:47 pm

Eurozone consumer price inflation accelerated in December, official data on Wednesday confirmed. Eurostat said the single currency bloc's consumer price index rose by 2.9% annually in December, accelerating from a 2.4% increase in November. The figure came in lin

Dollar up but March Fed cut conviction remains for now

Published at Tue, Jan 16 2024 - 4:03 pm

The dollar was in better shape as traders in New York returned to desks on Tuesday, though its gains on its Canadian counterpart were pared after a more robust inflation supported its North American neighbour. The dollar was on the up despite traders still maintainin

Dollar retreats; pound makes gains on GDP data

Published at Fri, Jan 12 2024 - 3:27 pm

The dollar retreated on Friday, giving back some of Thursday's gains, this follow numbers showing that US producer prices grew at a slower pace than expected in December. Meanwhile, the pound made some gains, following some better-than-expected data on the UK eco

US annual consumer price inflation rate picks up to 3.4%

Published at Thu, Jan 11 2024 - 2:42 pm

The US annual consumer price inflation rate picked up at a faster pace than expected, numbers on Thursday showed, dimming some Federal Reserve interest rate cut hope. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nation's yearly inflation rate picked up to 3.4

Dollar mixed as traders look for impetus from US CPI

Published at Wed, Jan 10 2024 - 2:53 pm

Foreign exchange markets struggled for direction on Wednesday afternoon, as traders look to Thursday's US inflation report for some impetus. "The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues," Bannockburn Globa

Dollar mixed; German data keeps lid on euro

Published at Tue, Jan 9 2024 - 4:10 pm

The dollar was mixed on Tuesday, but confined to a narrow range, as traders move with caution ahead of this year's first batch of interest rate decisions, due in the coming weeks. The greenback gained on the euro, which has been weighed down by tepid economic pro

Diverging data leaves dollar without clear direction

Published at Mon, Jan 8 2024 - 9:50 am

US activity figures released on Friday raised more concerns about data inconsistency than any clear direction for markets. Our US economist discusses here the above-consensus December jobs numbers. The US labour market is cooling (for lower-paid and part-ti

A question of timing

Published at Fri, Jan 5 2024 - 8:50 am

Today's data releases - the U.S. non-farm payrolls and eurozone Inflation figures — are always good for a few pips in EUR-USD. Although the consensus now is that the ECB and the Fed are at the peak of their rate hikes, and that rates have nowhere to go bu

FOMC minutes: Policymakers flex, markets not impressed

Published at Thu, Jan 4 2024 - 7:48 am

Analysts were a little surprised that Fed officials had not pushed back harder against market expectations for aggressive rate cuts this year, but perhaps they wanted to let the minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee do the work. The m

A calm start of the year

Published at Wed, Jan 3 2024 - 7:46 am

The dollar has started the week modestly offered, with Scandinavian currencies performing well and the yen dropping after yesterday morning’s Bank of Japan announcement. The US calendar was empty yesterday, so the spotlight was on Fedspeak. Loretta Me

Bumps in the road for USD?

Published at Tue, Jan 2 2024 - 2:58 pm

As 2024 begins, there is a broad acceptance that all but one of the G10 central banks have likely reached the peak of their rate hiking cycles. The clear exception is the BoJ. The market is also assuming that policy rates throughout the G10, aside from Japan, will be lo

Euro struggles as traders believe first ECB cut is near

Published at Fri, Dec 1 2023 - 3:55 pm

The dollar ended a tricky week mixed, while the euro struggled amid tepid data and as European Central Bank interest rate expectations soften. Against the dollar, the euro faded to USD1.0865 on Friday from USD1.0914 on Thursday. The pound climbed to EUR1.1622 from EU

Reality check for the dollar bears

Published at Fri, Dec 1 2023 - 11:13 am

Yesterday, analysts argued that the heavy lifting to a dollar recovery was likely hinging on more US activity data resilience but that a hawkish pushback by the Fed and higher oil prices were two other potential channels of dollar support. Personal spending, PCE and ini

Oil prices rise as Opec+ meeting gets underway

Published at Thu, Nov 30 2023 - 2:35 pm

Oil prices advanced on Thursday as traders positioned themselves for further supply tightness as producers gather to set production policy that could trigger a rally. A barrel of Brent fetched USD84.69 on Thursday, up from USD82.55 on Wednesday. West Texas

Today will probably bring a draw

Published at Thu, Nov 30 2023 - 8:23 am

The Fed likes to keep a close eye on PCE, its favored inflation measure, as the deflator for consumer spending is broader than the CPI. In October prices are likely to have fallen by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively (core rate) from September, which would correspond to annual

US third-quarter economic growth upwardly revised to 5.2%

Published at Wed, Nov 29 2023 - 3:13 pm

The US economy grew at an even stronger pace than first expected in the third-quarter of the year, numbers on Wednesday showed. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product in the US grew 5.2% on an annualised basis in the t

Euro touched $1.1, then pulled back

Published at Wed, Nov 29 2023 - 8:46 am

The euro briefly touched $1.1, maintaining its highest level since August 10th as investors were following speeches by ECB and Federal Reserve officials and awaited inflation data releases. Bundesbank President Nagel cautioned on Tuesday that if the inflation outlook

Oil falls amid uncertainty over Opec+ meeting

Published at Mon, Nov 27 2023 - 3:15 pm

Oil prices declined on Monday as traders remained uncertain about Opec+'s production policy ahead of the rescheduled meeting of leading producers later this week. A barrel of Brent fetched USD79.42 around 1045 GMT on Monday, down from USD81.56 at the same time on

Pound edges higher; UK consumer confidence bounces back

Published at Fri, Nov 24 2023 - 4:15 pm

The pound got a boost on Black Friday, as UK consumer confidence bounces back in November. Versus the greenback, the pound rose to USD1.2572 on Friday afternoon in London, from USD1.2541 on Thursday. Against the single currency euro, the pound rose to EUR1.1518 from

Pound gets boost on UK PMI; investors digest ECB minutes

Published at Thu, Nov 23 2023 - 4:12 pm

The euro found some support against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, following the release of minutes from European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the pound got a boost from a "surprise" preliminary purchasing managers' index reading. Against the dollar,

German debt brake causes some headaches for EUR traders

Published at Wed, Nov 22 2023 - 3:48 pm

The uncertainty over Germany’s fiscal headroom, after last week’s Constitutional Court ruling, has yet to have any significant impact on the euro. On the one hand, it could limit Germany’s room for fiscal maneuver next year, but at the same t

USD consolidation continues

Published at Wed, Nov 22 2023 - 9:46 am

Federal Reserve minutes once again reiterated the cautious approach to interest rates, which did not excite the markets much. US equity markets broke a five-day winning streak and Treasuries ended a little lower again. For EUR/USD, this seems to be more of a non-event.

Shorts on the run for the CNY

Published at Tue, Nov 21 2023 - 1:57 pm

Not many, ourselves included, expected USD/CNY to be trading back at these 7.14 levels so soon. Our thinking had been that while Chinese authorities did not want the renminbi any weaker - and were defending USD/CNY at 7.30 - equally they did not want it much stronger as

Oil slumps amid oversupply fears

Published at Fri, Nov 17 2023 - 3:01 pm

Oil prices slumped on Friday as traders worried about the glut of crude oil globally at the time when energy demand remains sluggish. A barrel of Brent fetched USD78.23 on Friday, sharply down from USD81.06 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate declined to USD73.

USD, a glimpse of the future?

Published at Fri, Nov 17 2023 - 8:35 am

The dollar has entered a consolidative phase, but yesterday’s price action gave us a glimpse of what could be more regular price action in 2024. US initial claims were a little stronger than expected, the US 2-10 year yield curve bull steepened by 3-4bp and DXY so

USD is bouncing around

Published at Thu, Nov 16 2023 - 10:00 am

The dollar is drifting higher as investors continue to assess whether the large drop on Tuesday was the start of something meaningful or just more noise in an uncertain environment. Analysts have heard a couple of Federal Reserve speakers still holding out the risk o

US retail sales top consensus; producer price pressure eases

Published at Wed, Nov 15 2023 - 2:57 pm

Annual US producer price growth was weaker than expected, reinforcing the disinflation narrative, while separate numbers on Wednesday showed retail sales were better-than-forecast. According to the Census Bureau, US retail sales fell 0.1% in October from September. I

UK inflation rate drops to 4.6% in October, halved from peak

Published at Wed, Nov 15 2023 - 12:34 pm

UK consumer price inflation cooled dramatically in October, according to data from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. The ONS said consumer prices rose 4.6% annually in October, dropping sharply from the 6.7% pace in September. The reading was lower mar

US inflation cools by more than expected to 3.2% in October

Published at Tue, Nov 14 2023 - 3:22 pm

US consumer price inflation slowed by more than expected last month, data on Tuesday showed, putting pressure on the dollar and adding credence to the notion that the Federal Reserve has already enacted its last interest rate hike of this cycle. According to the Bure

How stubborn is the US inflation?

Published at Tue, Nov 14 2023 - 8:07 am

Ahead of the important US inflation data today, trading in EUR/USD was quite sluggish yesterday. There is a risk that inflation in the US might be quite stubborn, thus confirming the many hawkish voices from among Fed members we heard recently. However, the threshold

Dollar drifts as markets await key US data

Published at Mon, Nov 13 2023 - 2:59 pm

The dollar is trading sideways ahead of key data later this week.  DXY is trading slightly lower for the second straight day near 105.781.  Key retracement levels from the November drop come in near 106 and 106.25.  The euro is trading flat near $1.0

USD is bouncing around in ranges

Published at Mon, Nov 13 2023 - 9:05 am

It has been another quiet start to the week in the world of FX. Investors have been left to mull over Moody's decision on Friday to switch its Aaa rating on the US sovereign to negative, citing familiar concerns over the polarisation of politics and the erosion

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